1 For additional background on Petrocaribe, see David Goldwyn and Cory Gill, “Uncertain Energy: The Caribbean’s Gamble with Venezuela,” Atlantic Council, July 16, 2014, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/files/Petrocaribe_RDO_18.pdf.
2 Petrocaribe’s initial thirteen signatories included Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Granada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Suriname.
3 The text of this agreement can be read at the following link: http://www.mpdc.es/components/com_mtree/attachment.php?link_id=528&cf_id=39.
4 Jorge Piñon, “Petrocaribe: A Supply-Demand Analysis,” University of Texas — Austin Jackson School of Geosciences Latin America and Caribbean Program, Presented by Jorge Piñon in Doral, Florida, June 16, 2014, slide 6.
5 “Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere,” International Monetary Fund, April 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2014/whd/eng/pdf/wreo0414.pdf.
6 Jed Bailey, Nils Janson, and Ramon Espinasa, Natural Gas in the Caribbean – Feasibility Studies (Volume 1), Inter-American Development Bank, June 30, 2015, http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=39205253, pp 14-15; US Energy Information Administration, “Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector,” https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a.
7 Petrocaribe is cited among the factors that have limited the OAS’s capacity to take a principled stand against the Venezuelan regime’s gross human rights violations and persecution of the political opposition, as exemplified by the weak March 2014 OAS resolution that expressed solidarity with Caracas’ efforts to address political turmoil despite the regime’s systemic crackdown against the political opposition. For additional analysis see “Bankrolling Votes in the OAS Pays Off for Venezuelan Regime,” Miami Diario, March 21, 2014, http://www.miamidiario.com/opinion/venezuela/nicolas-maduro/oas/protests/321721; Francisco Toro, “The Petrocaribe Trap,” Caracas Chronicles, March 31, 2014, http://caracaschronidcles.com/2014/03/31/the-petrocaribe-trap/.
8 “IMF Sees Venezuela inflation at 720% this year,” Financial Times, January 22, 2016, http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/22/imf-sees-venezuela-inflation-at-720-this-year/?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true; Ricardo Hausmann, “It could be too late to avoid catastrophe in Venezuela,” Financial Times, February 3, 2016, https://next.ft.com/content/204fc996-c8d5- 11e5-a8ef- ea66e967dd44.
9 Sara Schaefer Muñoz, “Venezuelans Get Fridays Off in Government’s Latest Bid to Save Energy,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelans-get-fridays-off-in-governments-latest-bid-to-save-energy-1460058607.
10 “Moody’s changes outlook on Venezuela’s Caa3 rating to negative from stable; Caa3 rating affirmed” Moody’s Investors Service, March 4, 2016, https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_344436; “S&P Says Venezuela Has Heightened Risk of Default” Latin America Herald Tribune, February 29, 2016, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=2406806.
11 “Venezuela’s opposition to pursue referendum, constitutional change to oust Maduro,” Associated Press, March 3, 2016, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/03/03/venezuela-opposition-to-pursue-referendum-constitutional-change-to-oust-maduro/.
12 Data transmitted via e-mail to David Goldwyn and Cory Gill from Jorge Piñon, Director, Latin America and Caribbean Energy Program, Jackson School of Geosciences, Interim Director, Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin.
13 Katia Porzecanski and Allan Lopez, “Jamaica Sells $2 Billion in Bonds to Repay Petrocaribe Debt,” Bloomberg News, July 23, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/jamaica-planning-1-5-billion-bond-sale-to-pay-petrocaribe-debt; Ezra Fieser, “Venezuela Gets $1.9 Billion as Dominican Republic Pays Debt,” Bloomberg News, January 29, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/dominican-republic-taps-1-9-billion-to-pay-venezuelan-oil-debt.
14 Data transmitted via e-mail to Cory Gill from Marianna Párraga, Reuters Energy Columnist.
15 Indeed, there are growing fears that PDVSA, whose finances have been thrown into further disarray as its revenues are limited by low prices, will default on the around $5.2 billion owed to bondholders in 2016. For more analysis, see Marianna Párraga, “Deepening default fears cast shadow over Venezuela’s oil flows,” Reuters, February 27, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-pdvsa-debt-analysis-idUSKCN0W00DA.
16 Carlos Camacho, “Reckless giveaway of Venezuela’s oil needs to stop, opposition says,” Fox News Latino, December 28, 2015, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2015/12/28/reckless-giveaway-venezuelas-oil-needs-to-stop-opposition-says/.
17 Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, Policy Implementation, http://www.ccreee.org/content/policy-implementation.
18 Description of C-SERMS provided to David Goldwyn and Cory Gill in conversations with US officials.
19 “FACT SHEET: U.S.-CARICOM Summit – Deepening Energy Cooperation,” April 9, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/09/fact-sheet-us-caricom-summit-deepening-energy-cooperation.
20 While there were no formal gas related initiatives pertaining to CESI when it was released in June 2014, Vice President Biden later acknowledged the importance of natural gas to Caribbean energy security at the January 2015 Caribbean Energy Security Summit.
21 More detail on changes to the process is available at the following link, http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2014/06/10-doe-approving-lng-export-goldwyn-hendrix.
22 The IDB has carried out a detailed study that suggests that the most efficient way for Caribbean nations to access LNG is a “hub and spoke” approach, where shippers might take small volumes of LNG to other islands. So far that business has not matured. The smaller islands lack the ability to finance the import infrastructure and no company has yet found a way to make the shipping economical. The technical requirements for shipping LNG on ISO containers safely can make the economics of small-scale shipments challenging.
23 Floating storage units are sea vessels used for the storage of hydrocarbons, including LNG.
24 Jed Bailey, Nils Janson, and Ramon Espinasa, Natural Gas in the Caribbean – Feasibility Studies (Volume 1), pp 161-177.
25 Adam Dolezal, Ana Maria Majano, Alexander Ochs, and Ramon Palencia, “The Way Forward for Renewable Energy in Central America,” World Watch Institute, June 2013, http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/CA_report_highres_english_2013_0.pdf.
26 Data transmitted via e-mail to David Goldwyn and Cory Gill from Jorge Piñon.
27 For more information, see “FACT SHEET: U.S.-CARICOM Summit – Deepening Energy Cooperation,” April 9, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/09/fact-sheet-us-caricom-summit-deepening-energy- ooperation.
28 AES Awarded Panama’s First Natural Gas-Fired Generation Plant,” Reuters, September 11, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/va-aes-corporation-idUSnBw115301a+100+BSW20150911.
29 While dispatch was initially expected to begin in 2018, a recent ruling by El Salvador’s Supreme Court mandating that Energia del Pacifico must receive legislative rather than executive approval to construct a pier needed for the project has brought about delays. However, the company is confident that El Salvador’s Congress will provide the necessary authorization. Analysis from phone conversation with Alejandro Alle, Energía del Pacífico Managing Director.
30 “USTDA Supports Study on LNG Terminal with Panama Canal Authority,” June 26, 2015, https://www.ustda.gov/news/press-releases/2015/ustda-supports-study-lng-terminal-panama-canal-authority.
31 In addition to wind and solar projects in Jamaica mentioned in this report report, information provided by OPIC to David Goldwyn and Cory Gill indicates that OPIC provided $52 million in support for renewable energy projects in Costa Rica and Panama in 2015.
32 Analysis from phone conversation with Alejandro Alle, Energía del Pacífico Managing Director.
33 Inter-American Development Bank, “Smart Grid Projects,” http://www.iadb.org/en/topics/energy/energy-innovation-center/popup-programs,9338.html?boxid=21&categ=5.
34 Estimate provided by the IDB.