1 The names for these two alternate futures, Shangri-La and Clockwork Orange, were chosen as they are both fictional works from the past century. Each vibrantly illustrates a different world, one utopian and balanced, the other deeply dystopian. The book Lost Horizons, by James Hilton, about a mystical Himalayan paradise whose inhabitants live nearly forever was written in 1933; A Clockwork Orange was first a 1962 book by Anthony Burgess, but became a cult hit in the 1971 movie of the same name by Stanley Kubrick.
2 Daniel E. Geer, Jr. “Cybersecurity and National Policy” (Harvard Law School National Security Journal, 2011), http://harvardnsj.org/2011/01/cybersecurity-and-national-policy/
3 Barry Hughes et al., “Cyber Benefits and Risks: Quantitatively Understanding and Forecasting the Balance” (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, 2015).
4 Daniel E. Geer, Jr. “Measuring Security,” http://geer.tinho.net/measuringsecurity.tutorial.pdf.
5 McKinsey Global Institute, “Disruptive Technologies: Advances That Will Transform Life, Business, and the Global Economy,” May 2013,http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies.
6 McKinsey Global Institute, “Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy,” May 2013, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
7 National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee, “NSTAC Report to the President on the Internet of Things,” undated draft from 2014, http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/IoT%20Final%20Draft%20Report%2011-2014.pdf
8 Moore’s Law describes a prediction that the number of transistors (a computer’s electrical switches representing 0s and 1s) that can fit on a silicon chip will double every two years as technology advances. This leads to incredibly fast growth in computing power without a concomitant expense and has led to laptops and pocket-size gadgets with enormous processing ability at fairly low prices; Annie Sneed, “Moore’s Law Keeps Going, Defying Expectations” (Scientific American, May 19, 2015), http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/moore-s-law-keeps-going-defying-expectations/
9 David Wilkofsky, Arthur Gruen and Norman Eisenberg, “TIA’s 2014 – 2017 Market Review & Forecast” (Telecommunications Industry Association, 2014), http://test.tiaonline.org/resources/market-forecast
10 David Wilkofsky, Arthur Gruen and Norman Eisenberg, “TIA’s 2014 – 2017 Market Review & Forecast” (Telecommunications Industry Association, 2014), http://test.tiaonline.org/resources/market-forecast
11 Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Net Losses: Estimating the Global Cost of Cybercrime,” Economic Impact of Cybercrime II (Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2014), http://csis.org/files/attachments/140609_rp_economic_impact_cybercrime_report.pdf
12 Jessica Rettig. “What is the ‘Base Case’ Forecast?” (Frederick S. Pardee Center for InternationalFutures, 2014), http://pardee.du.edu/news/what-base-case-forecast
13 International Telecommunication Union, “Measuring the Information Society Report” (United Nations, 2014), http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/publications/mis2014/MIS2014_without_Annex_4.pdf
14 Beau Woods, email with Jason Healey, 3 July 2015.
15 Institute for Economics and Peace, “2015 Global Peace Index Report,” June 2015, http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Global-Peace-Index-Report-2015_0.pdf
16 National Intelligence Council, “Global Trends,” http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends
17 Microsoft, “Cyberspace 2025,” June 2014, https://www.microsoft.com/security/cybersecurity/cyberspace2025/; CISCO, “The Evolving Internet,” August, 2010, http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/ekits/Evolving_Internet_GBN_Cisco_2010_Aug.pdf
18 Microsoft, “Cyberspace 2025,” June 2014, https://www.microsoft.com/security/cybersecurity/cyberspace2025/;. CISCO, “The Evolving Internet,” August, 2010, http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/ekits/Evolving_Internet_GBN_Cisco_2010_Aug.pdf
19 John Perry Barlow, “A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace,” 1996, https://projects.eff.org/~barlow/Declaration-Final.html
20 Lloyd’s of London, “Business Blackout: the Insurance Implications of a Cyber-Attack on the US Power Grid,” Emerging Risks Report 2015, May 2015, https://www.lloyds.com/~/media/files/news%20and%20insight/risk%20insight/2015/business%20blackout/business%20blackout20150708.pdf
21 Council on Cybersecurity, “Critical Security Controls,” 2014, http://www.counciloncybersecurity.org/critical-controls/
22 Comments provided in a private conversation in coordination with the report.
23 Neal Pollard, in an email to Jason Healey.
24 Richard Bejtlich, Statement for the Record for US House or Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce, March 2015, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF02/20150303/103079/HHRG-114-IF02-Wstate-BejtlichR-20150303.pdf
25 Barry Pavel and Peter Engelke, “Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transition,” Atlantic Council report, April 2015, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/DynamicStabilityStrategyPaper_04202015_WEB.pdf
26 Barry Pavel and Peter Engelke, “Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transition,” Atlantic Council report, April 2015, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/DynamicStabilityStrategyPaper_04202015_WEB.pdf
27 Such as Stanford University’s “Clean Slate Program,” http://cleanslate.stanford.edu/
28 The E15 Initiative, “Digital Economy,” http://e15initiative.org/themes/digital-economy/